UK ELECTRIC VEHICLE AND BATTERY PRODUCTION POTENTIAL TO 2040

On March 12th 2020 the Faraday Institution published an update to its study “UK Electric Vehicle and Battery Production Potential to 2040”, first published in 2019.

Key changes to the Faraday Institution’s 2020 forecast relative to the 2019 forecast are:

  • Demand for UK EV battery manufacturing capacity of around 140 GWh per annum in 2040 (2019 report: 120 GWh per annum).
  • The overall industry workforce of the automotive and EV battery ecosystem would grow by 50,000 jobs from 170,000 to 220,000 employees by 2040 (2019 report: growth of 60,000 jobs from 186,000 to 246,000 employees by 2040).
  • The typical size of a gigafactory is assumed to be 20 GWh p.a (2019 report: 15 GWh p.a.). Recent developments suggest that the average capacity of a mature gigafactory has increased by 5 GWh p.a.
  • Our new forecast is therefore for demand for seven UK gigafactories in the UK by 2040, with each factory having a manufacturing capacity of 20 GWh p.a. on average (2019 report: eight gigafactories producing 15 GWh p.a.).

The Faraday Institution’s forecasting modelling has been updated:

  • Using most up to date SMMT data on UK vehicle sales.
  • Taking into consideration recent policy announcements in the UK and EU that would accelerate the uptake of EVs, but which would mean that plug-in hybrids and hybrid EVs will be effectively phased out earlier than previously thought.
  • After a series of interviews were conducted with UK experts and applying further analysis of job creation potential from around 10 gigafactories where plans have been announced.

Download 2019 report

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